By Martin North

The times they are a-changin’. Ten years ago, on a pleasant late-summer evening, Manchester City were taking on Walsall at Maine Road in the old Second Division. These were ignominious times for a once proud organization; never before had a European trophy-winning club fallen to English football’s third tier.

Flash forward to Monday’s takeover by the Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG) and the astonishing signing of Brazilian superstar Robinho. The deadline-day drama sent Gustav-sized waves throughout the football world, could change the shape of the Premier League for years to come, and undoubtedly catapults Manchester City to a new level.

Against Walsall in 1998, Joe Royle handed a debut to his major summer signing Danny Tiatto, a ₤300k recruit from Baden. What a difference a decade makes. Robinho to Manchester City!? For a British record £32.5 million!? Two days on, it still feels quite surreal, like some sort a brilliant cheese-fuelled dream.

For United fans, it got dangerously close to their worst nightmare. Not content with nabbing Chelsea’s prime target, City’s new owners ruined their chances of some neighborly sugar-borrowing with a gloriously cheeky bid for Dimitar Berbatov. After doing the double over United last season, City seem intent on ripping down that “32 years and counting” banner from the Stretford End.

Robinho had been linked with United earlier in the summer as a makeweight for Ronaldo and it was this apparent mistreatment that increased his desire to leave the Bernabeu. He exits Madrid as an undoubted star, but has yet to live up to the comparisons with Pele that were made during his time at Santos.

At Eastlands (or Middle Eastlands as it has now been dubbed) Robinho will be a fan’s favorite. City supporters, young and old, have seen their share of entertainers – from the famous ‘60s trio of Colin Bell, Franny Lee and Mike Summerbee to the outrageously talented Georgi Kinkladze, who dazzled during his three-year spell in the mid-‘90s. Though he may not have dreamt it a week ago, Robinho now joins that list.

His task is not an easy one. He will be the face of the new City and will need to overcome past criticisms that he lacks self-esteem. The Premier League represents a sterner physical test than he faced in Spain or Brazil. If City are to live up to their new owners’ lofty ambitions, Robinho’s burden includes success as well as entertainment. Unlike Kinkladze, step-overs and flicks won’t win Blue hearts unless they come as part of a winning product.

For the new owners, that would mean qualification for the Champions League. When considering their chances of success, City’s newfound wealth will likely draw comparisons to Chelsea after Abramovich’s takeover, but they are wide of the mark. Chelsea were more prepared to win.

In the three seasons prior to Abramovich’s arrival, Chelsea had finished 4th, and 6th twice. They had also won the FA Cup in 2000 and lost in the final two years later. As the Stretford End banner says, City have won no major honors since 1976 and haven’t reached a major final in 27 years.

The notable exception came courtesy of the 1998/99 team when they won the Division 2 Playoff Final against Gillingham at Wembley thanks to a dramatic Paul Dickov equaliser in the dying seconds that sent the game to penalties. Dickov’s strike capped a remarkable comeback for City, who were two goals down with 4 minutes left, and was voted City’s Greatest Ever Goal in a 2005 Poll.

It’s worth mentioning that finishing two places above City in 1999 were the newly cash-rich Fulham, managed by a certain Kevin Keegan. Chairman Mohamed Al-Fayed pledged he would turn Fulham into the “Manchester United of the South.” Sound familiar? Unfortuantely for the Cottagers, things didn’t quite pan out that way and expectations were eventually scaled back.

City’s potential probably resembles Chelsea’s more than Fulham’s, but it may take them a while. The Premier League’s Top 4 is fast becoming football’s hardest glass ceiling. The past three seasons have seen the gap between 4th and 5th grow from 3 points to 8 and finally, last season, to 11.

That is not to say that the “Big Four” are impenetrable. While it’s unlikely that United and Chelsea will stumble, Arsene Wenger’s cautious transfer policy and reliance on youth may put Arsenal at risk. Meanwhile, on Merseyside, uncertainty over Liverpool’s ownership and new stadium provide an unstable footing to compete against newcomers with cash to burn.

Even with purported $1 trillion assets, the ADUG still have to find the players to spend it on. There seems little doubt that they will look to bring in the World’s brightest stars; According to the Group’s spokesman, Cristiano Ronaldo, Fernado Torres and Cesc Fabregas will all be targeted. But would they go to City? Probably not. It’s hard to see Cristiano Ronaldo moving across town after Ferguson persuaded him against joining Real Madrid, supposedly his dream club.

The more likely scenario will see Mark Hughes (assuming he stays) obtain a succession of B-List stars and highly-rated youngsters. Think Huntelaar of Ajax and Diego of Werder Bremen, rather than Ronaldo or Torres.

What’s certain is that City fans will see a host of new signings over the next year or two. If they do attract the “minimum of 18 new players” that the ADUG promises then the likely victims will be City’s young British players.

City founded their academy in 1998 and, over the last few years, it has become one England’s finest production lines. The City youth team reached FA Youth Cup final in 2006 and won it in 2008. In recent years, the academy has produced senior England internationals Shaun Wright-Philips, Joey Barton and Micah Richards. The current crop of youngsters includes England U21 internationals Michael Johnson, Daniel Sturridge and Nedum Onuha, not to mention Ireland’s Stephen Ireland and Wales’s Ched Evans, both full internationals. It’s fair to say that under the new management, these players would have found their opportunities limited.

The temptation for foreign-owned clubs, eager for immediate success, is to splash the cash on experienced players rather than take a chance on a homegrown prospect. And the trend is set to continue.

Not one to be outdone by their Abu Dhabi neighbors, Dubai International Capital are reportedly still keen on buying into the Premier League. Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle or Spurs could be next and that will mean fewer chances for young English players at top clubs. Once unthinkable, Sepp Blatter’s contentious quota system might be the only way to safeguard the future of the national team.

That future will not be foremost in the thinking of the ADUG. Their ambition is to win and win big. But at what cost? If Mark Hugues fielded a team of foreigners and won the Champions League, would the supporters complain?

City fans have long prided themselves on the perception of their club as the friendly, local alternative to the “evil corporation” two miles east. The ownership of Thaksin Shinawatra, with his controversial human rights record, sullied that image for some. Guardian columnist Simon Hatterstone echoed the opinion of many City fans when he renounced the club after the unpopular sacking of Sven Goran Eriksson:

“Until recently, I was so proud of you - sure, I knew you weren't the coolest kid on the block, certainly not the most glamorous, but you were warm and funny and human, and decent people liked you. These days you are crude and crass and humourless, and decent people despise you.”

Now Shinawatra and his healing crystals are gone, replaced by another foreign owner with more money and a less dubious past. If they follow in Chelsea’s footsteps, City fans can forget the niceties they’ve grown accustomed to at grounds around the Premier League. Aeschylus said, “It is in the character of very few men to honor without envy a friend who has prospered. That is particularly true of football supporters.

City fans won’t care – they’ve experienced their fair share of hurt and despair. Over the last 12 years they’ve endured three relegations and celebrated three promotions with a typically Northern cynicism. Right now they’re dressing up as Arabs, having a party and who can blame them? It’s going to be one hell of a ride, even if it all ends in tears. As Hatterstone says, “we’ll always have Gillingham.”

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Martin North also edits and contributes to the soccer blog, Row ZZ. He can be reached at martin@rowzz.com.